Fred Elder, How Much Longer?

Our class has had some recent discussions (some of which have appeared on the website) regarding longevity.  A recent article about retirement in the Charles Schwab Onward magazine presented some longevity calculators.  And yes, we realize retirement is not an issue for most of you as you are retired or will not retire.  But, longevity is of interest, at least to several, so here are the three longevity calculators presented in the article.

The Social Security Administration’s Life Expectancy Calculator  https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi  This is a very simple calculator and requires only two inputs, your birthday and your sex.  It then reviews the social security data base and estimates your remaining longevity based upon the entire US population.  For Fred, this calculator estimated a total life expectancy of 89.1 years.

The American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries; Longevity Illustrator https://www.longevityillustrator.org/ This is a relatively simple calculator, but includes two important questions the Social Security Administration calculator does not: Do you smoke and how is your general health.  This calculator also allows you to estimate the longevity of your spouse/significant other and presents a variety of outputs in interesting colors.  [Hint, if you are already retired (as most of us are) leave that field blank.]  For Fred, this calculator estimated a total life expectancy of slightly over 90 years, with a 50% probability.

The Blue Zone True Vitality Test https://apps.bluezones.com/en/vitality is more complex and – it will require a log in (user name and password) to get your results – which probably means follow on emails.  This test was developed in collaboration with the Minnesota School of Public Health and asks about 40 questions related to one’s overall health.  For Fred this calculator estimated a total life expectancy of 95.2 years, but it has an interesting additional calculation – it estimates one’s healthy life expectancy and Fred’s was 91.9 years.  It does not define healthy life expectancy, but one presumes that is the age before one is overly burdened with various chronic afflictions.  It also estimates a potential life expectancy and promises some specific recommendations as to how to get to that point. There was nothing specific for Fred, just a list involving eat more fresh vegetables, get more exercise, etc.  One rather intriguing recommendation in this rather generic list was to have an alcoholic beverage each day.  Sorry, it specifically mentioned one such drink per day for women and two such drinks per day for men and specifically mentioned moderation.

So, if you want to calculate your probable remaining years, now you have some tools, but remember, none of these calculators actually knows when it is your time to move to the deceased list.